Champions League:Real Madrid vs Lyon -by Auls

Champions League
            2010-03-10 – Real Madrid v Lyon
            Sports Betting Preview by Auls
            Real Madrid
            A lot of the locals are beginning to talk about the curse of Lyon
            after the French side beat the mighty Real Madrid 1-0 three weeks
            ago, their 5th meeting with Real yet to win once. The curse is going
            to have to be overcome in some style if Madrid wish to make the
            Final in their home stadium in May.

            Real were absolutely sensational when beating Sevilla 3-2 at home on
            Saturday, but that result will not suffice here. However, it was
            good enough to put them on top of La Liga on goal difference and it
            was their 13th win from 13 games at the Santiago Bernebeau this
            season. In those games, Real have scored 44 goals and conceded just
            10, although their only loss at home came against AC Milan in this
            competition.

            They have won all 3 games since losing at Lyon, scoring 14 goals and
            conceding 5 in those games. Real have won 11 games in a row at home
            in all competitions and they have won 6 of their last 7 at home by 2
            goals or more. More surprisingly for those who watch them regularly,
            they have kept 4 clean sheets at home in their last 6 games.

            Pepe, Royston Drenthe and ex-Lyon player Karim Benzema are not
            available for the game. Xabi Alonso and Marcelo are important losses
            through suspension but Guti did come through his appearance against
            Sevilla after returning to the side from injuries.

            Lyon
            Lyon will feel confident that they can progress with their 1-0 lead
            from the first leg, but will also have to blank out memories of
            their 5-2 mauling at the hands of Barcelona at exactly the same
            stage of the competition last season. In that game they took a 1-1
            scoreline back to the Nou Camp when they should have perhaps won the
            first leg, this time they have something to look after.

            They no longer hold domination over the rest of the French League,
            and after losing the title to Bordeaux last season, they currently
            sit in 4th, 2 points behind Bordeaux, who also have 2 games in hand,
            at the top of the League. Lyon are 6-5-2 away from home where they
            have scored 24 goals and conceded 14. They were 2-0-1 away from home
            in the group stages of this competition, including a late win at
            Liverpool.

            Lyon are unbeaten in their last 7 games in all competitions, keeping
            clean sheets in their last 6. They are unbeaten in their last 3 away
            from home, keeping clean sheets in all 3 games, but have drawn 2 of
            those games.

            François Clerc, Michel Bastos and Anderson are all out of the squad.
            Cesar Delgado made his return to the side last weekend and should be
            on the bench.

            Head to Head
            As I have alluded to above, Real Madrid have met Lyon 5 times in
            recent seasons and failed to win any of the games. While Lyon have
            won 3 out of 3 at home, the 2 games at the Santiago Bernebeau have
            both been score draws.

            Real Madrid have overturned first leg deficits 20 times from 31
            tries at home in their history.

            Both sides have been knocked out at this stage of the competition in
            each of the last 3 seasons, and it is now 5 years since Real Madrid
            played in a Champions League Quarter Final.

            Prediction
            Real Madrid were fantastic going forward last time out, but still
            have a few defensive deficiencies that can be exploited. There has
            to a be some anxiety in playing Lyon again and the failure to score
            an early goal may make the crowd a bit restless, which can then fall
            to the players. There also has to be a marked improvement in their
            play from the first leg.

            Lyon have been a solid European side over the last few seasons, but
            have failed to move beyond this stage. They will have some bad
            memories of their last venture into Spain last season against
            Barcelona, although I do believe they have the pace to cause plenty
            of problems themselves. It will be interesting to see if they invite
            pressure onto the defence as this could lead to a similar beating as
            they took by Barcelona.

            I can see goals in this match, while also feeling Real Madrid will
            be too strong. The loss of Alonso is important, but I feel they can
            overcome that here. I will play Real Madrid to win by 2 goals
            necessary to progress and will also have a nibble at over 3.5 goals
            as I feel Lyon will get 1 at least.
            The Pick :
            Real Madrid 4-1 Lyon

            FIXED ODDS BETTING :
            Over 3.5 goals
            HANDICAP BETTING :
            Real Madrid – 1.5 Asian Handicap