O3.0 @ 1.98 (Pinnacle) 6/10

All words needed to be said about this game have been said. I’m afraid I’ve got nothing new for you. Odds have been dropping since day1 for goals picks in this game and this would be a 8/10 bet for those opening odds close to evens for over2.75. I still feel there is value in the prices, but I can’t type anything more than 6 units when publishing such a slashed odd and a very used bet around the web.

The over expectancy however is there. Real has overish games in their DNA, with all those big stars able to turn a 2-0 deficit to a 3-2 in some 15-20mins (see Sevilla game) and some negligence for defence. Lyon can step up here to push to an overish direction and their only qualifying scenario, their most probable one to say the least, is their scoring loss by one. Cause, they can’t hold them back. And it is Real’s offensice capacity that is expected to deliver the goods for overish bets. No matter if they trash them 4-0 or if they get disqualified 3-2 or 2-1, an overish game expected, like most games in Bernabeu in CL and in Primera. GL!