Football – Germany vs Spain

Germany v Spain, Durban, Wednesday 1930 BST

You have to wonder quite what Germany need to do at this World Cup before they’re made favourites for a knockout game.

As the predictable but depressing ‘patriotic punt’ came on the morning of their last-16 game against England, Joachim Low’s men drifted out to 21/10 (England were 13/8). And we all know what happened there.

Six days later and Argentina were 13/10 favourites to beat them (and 4/7 to qualify). And we all know what happened there.

But after scoring four goals in back-to-back World Cup knockout games they’re still regarded as the outsiders pretty much across the board as they gear up for a semi-final clash with Spain.

Ladbrokes make it 5/6 each of two in their ‘to qualify’ market but every other firm favours the European champions, albeit only marginally.

And though you may say it contradicts the opening paragraph of this piece, I think it’s fair to say that taking a long view that’s understandable.

Asked before the tournament started to price up a possible Germany v Spain game it would have taken a brave man to make the latter the outsiders.

They came into the tournament on the back of just one defeat in their previous 48 matches and having shed the ‘nearly man’ tag at Euro 2008.

They did that, of course, by beating none other than Germany in the final.

But make no mistake about it, this is a different German team to that one – and the evidence so far in South Africa is it’s also a different Spain team.

While Germany have romped through their last two games to widespread acclaim, Vicente del Bosque’s men have rather stuttered their way to this stage with back-to-back 1-0 victories over Portugal and Paraguay.

Of course, the very fact they’re finding a way to win – particularly while Fernando Torres is well short of his best – is a tribute to their determination.

And in David Villa they have the odds-on favourite for the Golden Boot.

But as good as the likes of Villa and Andres Iniesta have been so far, Spain are yet to really click into gear here, while Germany have – but for their slip-up against Serbia – swept aside everything that has been put in front of them.

Though Thomas Muller will be a big miss for them in this one, there’s plenty of goals in their line-up, particularly up front where Miroslav Klose has once again gone from domestic toiler to world-class international frontman.

Of course there’s a danger Spain click here – poor teams generally don’t reach the World Cup semi-finals – but we kept saying that about England and all the momentum coming into this one is with Germany.

Hills have cut their odds to qualify to 10/11 after heavy backing, including a 75,000 euro single, but there’s still plenty of evens available. Get on.

Verdict: Germany 2 Spain 1