Football – World Cup Final

After 63 games, a million vuvuzela blasts and much English navel-gazing, Africa’s first World Cup reaches its conclusion.

And it’s hard to argue with the finalists: Holland have won every game of their World Cup campaign (including qualifiers), and Spain – while not prolific in front of goal – have controlled games expertly with their unparalleled passing game.

It’s also a final that ensures a couple of notable firsts: a first-time winner, and also a first ‘away’ victory for Europe in football’s biggest event.

But will it be an Oranje boom or a Spanish fiesta?

The layers are convinced it’ll be the Spanish celebrating in Johannesburg’s Soccer City on Sunday night, with Vicente Del Bosque’s pass-masters a best of 6/5 with William Hill to win inside 90 minutes, and a general 4/7 chance to lift the trophy.

But we feel that underestimates the Dutch. Their long unbeaten record simply must be respected, and Coral’s standout 13/8 on Holland lifting the trophy is tempting. They could have done no more, and are just 90 minutes from a perfect tournament.

But there might just be a better way of getting the Dutch onside: their star player in South Africa has undoubtedly been Wesley Sneijder. He’s been their main creative force and weighed in with five goals to leave him in with a great chance of snaring the Golden Boot.

But one award he’s surely set to claim is the adidas Golden Ball award for the tournament’s best player.

Only one player – one-tournament-wonder Toto Schillaci – in 1990 has won the award without playing in the final, and he had other factors on his side: home advantage, and the general lack of flair and excitement on offer from the finalists West Germany and Argentina (although Lothar Matthaus was probably unlucky to collect only the Silver Ball. Diego Maradona getting the Bronze Ball is an enduring mystery).

So that means we can reasonably exclude the claims of Germans and Uruguayans, however impressive the likes of Mesut Ozil, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Diego Forlan have been over the last four weeks.

If Holland win, it’s hard to see any way their playmaker and leading goalscorer doesn’t get the nod, barring a stunning final hat-trick from Arjen Robben or David Villa. Even so, it’d still be hard to make a case that Sneijder hadn’t been the key player across the tournament as a whole having been named man of the match in four of Holland’s six matches to date. As he’s a reasonable bit longer for the Golden Ball (15/8) than Holland are to lift the trophy, that alone makes the bet a bit of value.

But there has to be a reasonable chance Sneijder still gets the nod even in defeat. The last three Golden Ball winners have all been runners-up (Zinedine Zidane in 2006, Oliver Kahn in 2002 and Ronaldo in 1998).

This has generally been down to more than one standout performer from the winners splitting the vote (which, as we’ve said, we don’t see being the case should Holland win this time round). At the last World Cup, Italy’s Fabio Cannavaro and Andrea Pirlo were second and third, while Ronaldo (Silver Ball winner) and Rivaldo must have been hard to split in 2002, and France’s success in 1998 was based on a team effort rather than any individual star (Lilian Thuram was their only representative in the top three).

It’s easy to see a similar scenario should Spain triumph. While they have been reliant on David Villa for goals (he’s netted five of their seven to date in South Africa) their success has been built largely on the control they exert in midfield thanks to the passing game of Xavi, Iniesta and Busquets.

It’s certainly easy to envisage the first two of those three splitting any vote on Spanish stars alongside 15/8 joint-favourite Villa.

To emphasise the point, Sneijder’s four man of the match awards (and must have been close to another when scoring one and making the other against Slovakia) stack up well against just one for Villa and two apiece for Xavi and Iniesta.

It’s not an exact science, of course, but does highlight the way Sneijder has dominated Holland’s campaign in a way no Spain player has. His only serious rival from within is Robben, and he missed the start of the tournament through injury.

In summary: if Holland win, Sneijder almost certainly takes the award; if Spain win, he still might.

And as he’s a significantly better price to win the Golden Ball than Holland are to win the tournament, it has to be the value call.

However, Spain’s ability to control a game against top-class opposition was highlighted perfectly on Wednesday night against the Germans.

But they’ve not fired in the final third and, having won all three knockout games 1-0, it seems worth a saver on that scoreline at Victor Chandler’s and Ladbrokes’ 11/2.

Verdict: Holland 2 Spain 1