Weekend Soccer Predictions

The Premiership
Aston Villa – Everton 2.45 – 3.25
I am well aware of some poor home displays from Villa this season but I have to say that the odds on the home win exceed my expectations (The initial odds were 2.69). Villa are better than Everton, at least in my opinion, or maybe I should say that their potential is stronger. Add a new striker to the Villa squad, Robbie Keane, who will play for Villa a couple of months. He will replace the injured E Heskey. Keeper S Given is available again.

Everton lost expectedly to Tottenham in midweek. They were alright, but they are not better than that. Add the defender S Distin to their already lengthy injury list. D Gibson, M United midfielder, has signed for Everton and I take it for granted that he will be involved tomorrow. Backing the home win.

Blackburn – Fulham 3.07 – 2.60
Without their two aces Chris Samba and Yakubu Blackburn were only seconds away from getting a cup replay vs. Newcastle. Tomorrow they will return and it also looks like J Hoilett, P Robinson and D Dunn will be available again. M Olsson was back against Newcastle. Blackburn lost their last home game in the league against Stoke. They just cannot afford to lose this home fixture, it is as simple as that, but do they have enough to defeat this rather hard to beat Fulham side?

Fulham come to this match in full form having defeated Arsenal at Craven Cottage and drawn their last two away games at Chelsea and Norwich. B Zamora was back against Arsenal and tomorrow both A Johnson and S Davies will return. Fulham are 1-5-4 on their travels and should they really be favourites away from home? An important question and, as I want Blackburn to succeed, I cannot ignore the odds on the home win. May well be that last game in the Blackburn shirt for C Samba Blackburn to win.

Chelsea – Sunderland 1.40 – 9.50
D Drogba and S Kalou have left for the African Cup and Ivanovic is struggling with an injury. Chelsea can handle these absentees. Malouda is considered an injury doubt.

P Bardsley, S Larsson and K Richardson were back in the Sunderland starting line up at Peterborough last week. N Bendtner was rested and W Brown was not yet fit to play. Sunderland impressed again, winning their third game on the trot and the S Larsson set pieces once again proved effective. Bendtner should be back for this game. At the moment it does not seem to be a good idea opposing O’Neill’s Sunderland.

Liverpool – Stoke 1.50 – 8.95
Less than 72 hours after their cup semi final against Man City Liverpool have to face this physical Stoke side. It can be quite an ordeal facing Stoke and you need fresh and motivated players when you are up against this uncompromising Stoke side. This season Stoke have been more of a threat in their away games than earlier seasons. In fact they have won four of their six away fixtures.

My reasoning leads me to believe that the home win is somewhat underpriced in this match. J Enrique will start for Liverpool and C Adam will probably play from the start instead of the injured Spearing. A Wilkinson will be back in the Stoke defence, but Shotton, Woodgate and M Wilson are all injury concerns. Backing Stoke? No, I do not think so.

Manchester Utd – Bolton 1.18 – 21.75
Having lost their last two league games there is absolutely no doubt that United have to win this match. It is rarely a formality to win in the Premiership, but defeating Bolton at Old Trafford comes close. OK, United lost at home to Blackburn, as underpriced as this time, but Ferguson fielded a very strange looking side at that time, taking his chances. It back fired, but United have more players at their disposal at this moment than three weeks ago. I expect United to play with their strongest available side and that will do. C Smalling, Anderson and P Jones are slight injury concerns.

Gary Cahill, the Bolton defender, is on the verge of joining Chelsea and I do not expect him to be playing in this match. Bolton have done better away from home than at the Reebok Stadium, but it will not matter tomorrow. Home win, of course.

Tottenham – Wolves 1.33 – 13.00
Wolves are winless in their last six league games. Away from home they are 1-3-6, but the fact is that they have drawn their last two away games, 1-1 at Arsenal and Bolton. Milijas returns from his suspension for this game and there is every chance that R Johnson will be fit to play, D Edwards as well.

Livermore replaced the injured S Parker /and/or Sandro when Tottenham defeated Everton earlier this week. Sandro will be sidelined again and I figure that Redknapp will give Parker one more week in the treatment room. Conclusion: Spurs will probably field an unchanged starting eleven tomorrow. Likely home win.

W B A – Norwich 2.10 – 3.92
Tough game for the home side considering their many injured players and doubtful starters. Without S Long in their line up S Cox excelled at the weekend vs. Cardiff scoring three of the WBA goals. Expect Odemwingie and Cox to continue in the WBA front line tomorrow. C Brunt remains sidelined, but there is some hope that Mulumbu, Mc Auley, J Olsson, J Thomas, P Scharner and S Long will be available again. They will all be assessed. My guess is that Long will be back, maybe Thomas, Scharner and McAuley.

Norwich have lost to the top sides Arsenal, Man City and Tottenham these last two months, but that is about it. No losses against the so called “human” sides, or teams out side the top six. WBA of course belong to that category. The official starting line ups will be interesting, but I am leaning towards the away win. WBA have played quite poorly at home this season.

Norwich to win.

Newcastle – Q P R 1.81 – 5.00
There are two reasons for backing the outsider. No Demba Ba or Tiote in the Newcastle squad. There is a new QPR manager, Mark Hughes, and this will be his first game in charge.

Too bad that he has to manage without four players, Faurlin, Taarabt, Traore and J Barton. On another day they would all play from the start. Tricky situation for Hughes to do without all these missing midfielders. Advantage Newcastle, but they have become over rated favourites this time.

Swansea – Arsenal 5.50 – 1.85
This will be very interesting. The slick masters of possession football, Swansea, up against this rather ineffective Arsenal side. Arsenal have on going scoring problems at the moment, but they have at least been able to create plenty of openings. It will be tougher creating scoring possibilities in this match because Arsenal will not be able to dominate the ball possession, like they usually do.

They lost Coquelin to an injury earlier this week, their fifth wing back, or something like that. Fortunately Djorou will be available again. Van Persie will of course also be back, but Gervinho has left for the African Cup. Arshavin? He looked promising against Leeds, but his fast moves are leading nowhere. I, for one, have given up. I was as moved as everyone else watching Henry scoring for Arsenal. Just to have the legend in the dressing room will be a major boost for Arsenal.

Swansea are 4-5-1 at home and their sole loss was against Man United, 0-1. They never deserved to lose, but that is another story. 1X game, in my opinion.

Wigan – Manchester City 10.00 – 1.44
Are we supposed to write off the Wigan chances now after their last sluggish displays vs. Sunderland and Swindon? Both losses and 1-6 the score line. It is tempting to do just that but Martinez’ side almost always seem to come back from adversity. At least it has been like that. Not so long ago, for example, they drew their home games with Chelsea and Liverpool. Crusat should be available again, but no Diame.

Man City lacked energy against Liverpool in the cup. Their first half display was uncharacteristically poor. They got better in the second half, or Liverpool stopped thinking in offensive terms, I do not know. Anyway without D Silva City lose a lot, but their main creator is expected back for this Monday fixture. Balotelli looks set to miss out while Kompany and the two Toures remain absentees. It is a worrying time for Mancini and his City team, but with Silva playing again, their winning chances have improved.

Backing City? Out of the question. To back this 1.44 the least you need is a team in form and City have gone down in both form and quality lately, due to their absentees and their hectic schedule.

Serie A
Catania – Roma 3.44 – 2.40
“Our worst game of the season” said the Catania coach Montella after their loss against Bologna at the weekend. Two offensive players, Biagianti and Marchese, will be suspended for this game. Suazo, forward, will finally be back in contention. Maxi Lopez is still a Catania player and he will start in their front line again.

Roma keep winning. It took two Totti penalties to defeat Chievo at the Olympic Stadium. In midweek they defeated Fiorentina in the cup, with Lamela scoring twice. Their boss has alternatives for this match, Borini or Bojan upfront, Taddei or J Angel in defence and Simplicio or Gago on their midfield.

I recall last season. I backed Catania at home to Roma. They were down 0-1, but they found a way of scoring two very late goals. Sweet memories. I have no plans backing Catania this time. Looks like a low scoring affair. 1-1 or 0-1.

Lazio – Atalanta 1.81 – 5.60
“Blame the loss on me”, words from the Lazio coach after their embarrassing 0-4 loss against Siena. He is right. He picked a very odd starting line up. Why, I do not really know.

Dias, Hernanes, Gonzalez, Rocchi, among others are expected back for this match. Fit again Marchetti will replace the suspended Bizarri between the Lazio sticks. Radu, Sculli and Hernanes are late injury doubts.

Atalanta will most likely start with the same side that lost to Milan, or Lucchini will replace Manfredini in their defence. Atalanta did not play a poor game against Milan, to be fair to them.

Lazio are 3-4-2 at home and they are not easily backed in Rome. They just about defeated Verona the other day in the cup 3-2, the winning goal arrived in the dying minutes. 1X game.

Cesena – Novara 2.10 – 4.36
Decent odds on the home win. Down to ten men Cesena were no match for Udinese last weekend. The red carded Lauro will be suspended for this fixture, but Martinez should be available again.

Novara played a quite hopeless game at home to Fiorentina and their only hope at the moment is Mascara. They have just signed the former Catania and Napoli forward. Caracciolo and Rinaudo have also joined the newcomers. So Novara have reacted, trying to improve their difficult situation.

Cesena are on the same points, but they have gone from really bad to just poor since they changed their coach. I will stick to my home win suggestion despite the Novara signings.

Chievo – Palermo 2.20 – 3.85
No worries for the home side ahead of this game and they are quite confident home in Verona. So far they are 4-3-1 at home. Palermo will be able to call on two of their previously missing forwards, Ilicic and Pinilla for this game, but Hernandez and Zahavi remain sidelined along with defender Pisano. It was a better looking Palermo offence on Sunday, but then we have this on going Palermo problem, their inability to win or even score away from home. I can only make a case for the home win, but it is definitely not the first game on my betting list.

Fiorentina – Lecce 1.45 – 9.94
So finally Delio Rossi has found his Fiorentina team. I am thinking along those lines after their 3-0 win at Novara, their first away win of the season. They had managed to score one away goal in their previous eight away games and now three goals in one single game. Their ace Jovetic scored two of the goals.

Lecce will miss the suspended Oddo and the injured Giandonato and Strasser. Carozzieri is a major injury doubt. Fiorentina, most likely unchanged, will win this match.

Genoa – Udinese 3.20 – 2.63
Poor Genoa display away to Cagliari. They were not helped by the Moretti red card, but new signing Gilardino, for example, was no better than during his recent Fiorentina days. Moretti and his defensive colleague Kaladze will both miss this fixture. A third defender, Dainelli, is a major doubt, but their striker Palacio could be back. Palacio and Gilardinio together ought to be able to create some problems for the Serie A defenders. Biondini has joined the club from Cagliari.

Udinese won with ease against ten man Cesena. Asamoah and Benatia, both important players, have left for the African Cup. Udinese have only won two away games this season (2-4-2) and I am not comfortable backing them as away favourites. No bet game for now, but I am closer to backing the home win.

Juventus – Cagliari 1.33 – 14.86
The only unbeaten Serie A side, Juventus, will be without their suspended defender Chiellini. De Ceglie is favourite to replace him as wing back. Quagliarella is new on their injury list, but fellow striker Borriello is included in the Juve squad for this match.

The Cagliari home win against Genoa was absolutely essential for the club. A big relief, quite simply. Conti, Perico, Nene and Sampaio are not yet fit. Likely home win, but quite indifferent odds.

Parma – Siena 2.30 – 3.60
New Parma coach and not just anybody. Donadoni is their new main man. He will have their key defender Lucarelli available again, but he has to manage without the suspended Galloppa. Musacci, never heard of him, will replace Galloppa on the midfield. Mirante or Pavarini between the Parma sticks.

D’Agostino and Vitiello will return for this six pointer game, but the Siena midfielder Bolzoni is out injured. Siena could also have Vergassola available again for this important fixture. It was a joy to watch the two Siena strikers Calaio and Destro against Lazio. They scored two goals each. New manager effect, I guess and I will probably back the home win.

Milan – Inter 2.20 – 3.81
This derby could not be played at a better time. Both teams are on great winning runs and fans from both camps have every reason to feel optimistic. The league leaders Milan welcome back Abate, Seedorf, Gattuso and Ambrosini to their squad and only Aquilani is an injury doubt.

D Forlan will be back for Inter and Sneijder has finally been cleared to play. Lucio and Samuel, remember those two, will line up in their central defence with Ranocchia sent to the bench. Sneijder has been sidelined for quite some time and it will be interesting to see if Ranieri will include the Dutchman in his starting line up. Pazzini or Sneijder, I guess.

D Milito is back in full form again looking as strong as during the Mourinho days and the Inter offence looks a bit stronger than the Milan strike force, but that is only my personal opinion. It is just that Robinho and Pato are besides their best form. Right or wrong, I prefer the away I win. I mean there is 3.81 on the Inter win in a 100% open game and there is no home advantage. Inter to win.

Napoli – Bologna 1.35 – 12.00
I was impressed by the Napoli performance at Palermo last week. Chelsea will have problems, rest assured of that. Pandev, in for the injured Lavezzi, looked surprisingly sharp and Cavani? He is the player that Chelsea hoped F Torres would be. No Lavezzi this time either and Pandev will be in his position once again.

Bologna will be without both their defenders Loria and Portanova. Now also their play maker Diamanti will miss out on this game Home win, of course, but the odds have killed the match.

The Championship
Doncaster – Cardiff 3.94 – 2.10
I will back two outsiders in the Championship and this is the first of them. Backing Doncaster at the Keepmoat Stadium has been a profitable pastime lately and this could be their fourth home win on the bounce. Forget about their home loss in the FA Cup last week. They rested tons of important players. The all important Billy Sharp will play upfront most likely alongside Hadji-Diouf. M Woods and J Oster, both crucial Doncaster players , made their come backs as substitutes last week and they will be in contention for this match. D Plessis, once playing for Liverpool, has just joined Doncaster.

Cardiff played and lost the first Carling Cup semi final against Crystal Palace earlier this week. I can imagine that Cardiff will struggle a bit at Doncaster, at least to begin with. The Doncaster aggressiveness will be too much for Cardiff, at least I hope as much. Home win!

Nottingham Forrest – Southampton 3.10 – 2.47
The home win will be my call. After a dreadful negative run Nottingham won comfortably away to Ipswich in their last league game. The flood gates will open, or something like that? Not necessarily, but I expect improved Nottingham displays now and in the future. G Cunningham, left back, should be back for this game, but probably not their forward R Findley. Forget about W Morgan, C Cohen and Moloney.

Southampton, winless in their last four away fixtures in the league, have to manage without their suspended top striker R Lambert (17 goals). Jaidi, Seabourne and Chaplow look set to miss this game. Southampton have not played like the top side they are, away from home that is (3-4-5 so far). Nottingham to win.

West Ham have struggled lately. Suspensions and injuries have made life difficult for their coach Allardyce. Tomorrow he will be able to pick from his strongest squad for ages. One can even talk about problems of abundance. Home or away does not seem to matter for West Ham. They are 7-3-3 away from home and they should have a decent chance of winning away to Portsmouth tomorrow. The odds on the away win are 2.56.

Derby (7-2-4 at home) face the worst away side in the Championship and that is of course Coventry (0-3-9). Derby are on a positive run and their coach Clough will be able to draw from an unchanged squad. The home win looks very likely and the odds are 1.96.

La Liga
Granada – Rayo Vallecano 2.43 – 3.50
Open game, this I admit, but I will opt for the home win. Diakhate, Granada defender, has left for the African Cup, but his colleague Inigo Lopez will be fit to play. Their keeper Roberto has been a doubt, but he has been cleared to play. Jara will be back from his suspension, playing on the midfield.

Rayo will be without three offensive players Pacheco, Bangoura and Koke. Veteran striker Tamudo will play, though. Granada winning by the odd goal.

Atletico Madrid – Villarreal 1.75 – 5.50
Backing the home win. Depressing odds? Yes, I know. A Madrid kind of impressed last week away to Malaga despite the 0-0 result. New coach Simeone has brought stability to the side and they looked more likely to win the match. I recall at least two 100% clear scoring possibilities missed. Adrian and Falcao could play upfront. Diego and Arda Turan also from the start in an offensive line up. Defenders L Perea and Dominguez are out suspended and we will most likely find Juanfran, Godin, F Luis and Miranda playing from the start in the home defence.

M Ruben, the Villarreal striker, will be suspended for this fixture, G Rossi is not yet fit and Nilmar is the only available Villarreal striker this time. No Camunas. Villarreal are 0-3-6 away from home and that is why A Madrid have become the big favourites. Home winner.